Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List won 41 of the 100 seats in Latvia’s parliament, the Saeima, in the October 3 election, according to official results confirmed by the Central Election Commission (CVK) on October 16, and he is due to open coalition talks with his current partners on October 28.

The official results, reported by the public broadcaster LSM, give Latvia First 17 seats, Sovereign Power/Union of New Latvians 15, the National Alliance 10, the Progressives 10 and New Unity seven. No other party won seats.

United List won 35.288% of the vote, according to provisional figures the CVK released on October 5 after postal votes were counted, LSM reported. Latvia First received 13.076%, Sovereign Power/Union of New Latvians 11.710%, the National Alliance 8.897%, the Progressives 7.878% and New Unity 6.362%. LSM’s report on the October 16 confirmation listed seats and elected members but not final vote shares.

Provisional results published on October 4, with 99.9% of votes counted, had given United List 42 seats and the Progressives nine, according to LSM. The confirmed tally gave the two parties 41 and 10 seats respectively.

United List won seats in all five constituencies: 13 in Rīga, 13 in Vidzeme, six each in Zemgale and Kurzeme, and three in Latgale. In Latgale, Latvia First won five seats and Sovereign Power/Union of New Latvians three. The Progressives won six of their 10 seats in Rīga and none in Latgale.

Record low turnout

A total of 806,641 voters, or 51.79% of those eligible, took part, including postal votes, according to the provisional CVK figures. On election night, LSM reported that turnout of about 51.6% would be the lowest ever in a Saeima election, below the previous low of 54.6% in 2018. Turnout in 2022 was 59%. More than 11% of the 1,557,615 registered voters cast ballots before election day during five days of early voting.

“Behind every vote cast is a person and their trust in the electoral process,” said Māris Zviedris, head of the CVK. The commission said the compiled data was being checked carefully before the results were confirmed.

Coalition talks

The president has entrusted Kulbergs with forming the next government, LSM reported on October 20. Kulbergs had planned to begin talks the previous week but postponed them because of urgent personal matters that would take him out of the country. He is now scheduled to meet the National Alliance at 1 p.m. and New Unity at 3 p.m. on October 28. The two parties are United List’s current coalition partners, and based on the official results the three parties together hold 58 of the 100 seats. United List also plans to meet the other parties in the Saeima.

Options discussed publicly range from a two- or three-party coalition to a minority government of sectoral experts. Kulbergs has not ruled out any option and has denied that ministerial posts have already been allocated.

“We will begin forming the government by agreeing on how we will work,” Kulbergs said. “We must justify the voters’ trust with tangible results.” Jānis Eglīts, a National Alliance member of parliament, said “there is absolutely no need to rush at this stage.”

Why it matters

Under Latvia’s process, as described by LSM, President Edgars Rinkēvičs nominates a candidate to form a government, the parties then sign a coalition agreement, a government declaration and an action plan and agree on ministerial portfolios, and the Saeima must approve the government by a majority vote. United List’s 41 seats leave it short of a majority on its own.

Kulbergs had led the government for about five months at the time of the vote, and United List is now the largest group in the Saeima. Latvia First and Sovereign Power/Union of New Latvians, the second- and third-largest groups, together hold 32 seats. New Unity, part of the outgoing coalition, has the smallest group in the new parliament.

What to watch

Kulbergs’ meetings with the National Alliance and New Unity on October 28 are the next scheduled step in coalition talks. Any government Kulbergs proposes will need the support of a majority in the 100-seat Saeima.

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